Do you see what happens? Do you see what happens Larry? Do you see what happens when you fuck a stranger in the ass?!!
Herm Edwards showing Larry what happens.
Apparently, Larry gets $19 million guaranteed over 5 years. Damn why did that holdout all have to end well with a contract and ruin the photoshop I’ve been wanting to do for a month now?
I do look forward to yet more proof of the Football Outsiders argument that once a back reaches 370 carries in a season, the next year is almost always doomed to be a bad one.
The 370-carry theory is generally summarized as follows: “A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson.”
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From 1978 through 2004, 60 running backs had seasons of at least 340 carries. Comparing the number of carries for each running back with the number of yards he gained the following year gives us a correlation coefficient of -.24. In other words, as players carry the ball more, they are less likely to run for as many yards the following year, due to a mixture of lost effectiveness and injury. If we want to measure only effectiveness (yards per carry) or playing time (total carries) the correlations are similar.
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To summarize, eight of these 14 players [who didn’t reach 370 in the season but reached 390+ carries in a season+postseason as of 1/1/07] were injured or lost effectiveness the following season. A ninth, Thomas, was still effective and healthy, but lost stamina. Three players, Davis, Campbell, and Smith (1994) had problems two seasons later, after another year of overuse. Only two of these players, Martin and Smith (1991) seemed to have no ill effects for multiple seasons afterwards.
I highly recommend that article to both you, the reader, and to the Chiefs front office. Enjoy paying LJ while he’s injured and/or ineffective this year! There’s no way I give a 27 year old running back with that many carries in the previous season and that much workload over his career a 5 year contract.