It turns out that I have a few friends who keep up with our little cyberspace experiment here, and almost all of them have asked me in one form or another:

“So, Mr. Baseball, the season’s almost started. When are you going to put up some predictions?”

I hate season prediction articles. There’s always a team that comes out of nowhere to contend, and a team that’s expected to be really good that falls flat on its face. Damned if I know what they’re going to be… I have some guesses, but they’re not any better than anybody else’s, and all this article’s going to do is hold my total lack of true expertise up for the world to see.

That being said, I haven’t written anything for a few days. I’ll knock out the American League tonight and cover the National before the weekend ends. So away we go!

“Of all the bloggers to remember this movie, it’s got to be THIS jackass. What, no ‘Quigley Down Under’ jokes?” (image courtesy of film.tv.it)

American League East

1. New York Yankees. No, I’m not homing out. The Yankees have the best lineup in baseball, even when you figure that Josh Phelps (323 career hits, 344 career strikeouts) and Doug “It’s My Ball” Mientkiewicz will be sharing time at first base. That experiment notwithstanding (my mini-prediction: Jason Giambi’s back at first before Memorial Day and the front office will have Aaron Guiel and Bernie Williams back on speed-dial), the Yankees’ pitching is just a little deeper than Boston’s, and I like the subtraction of Gary Sheffield from the Yankees more than I like the addition of J.D. Drew in Boston.

2. Boston Red Sox. Manny and Papi are the best 1-2 punch in baseball until someone else proves otherwise, but the rest of the lineup isn’t better as a whole. Drew’s the softest 85 RBI man in baseball, and Jason Varitek started showing his age last season. The pitching is very good, and while the bullpen’s settled with the return of Jonathan Papelbon to the closer’s role, that makes the rotation a little short.

3. Toronto Blue Jays. The Vernon Wells-led offense will churn out a lot of runs and Roy Halladay’s always a Cy Young contender, but there just aren’t enough arms for Toronto to be for real.

4. Baltimore Orioles. The big news in Orioles camp this year was the concern over where Jay Gibbons was going to play. The bad news is, it won’t matter. Who the hell’s on this team, anyway?

5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays. At least Baltimore was talking about players. Tampa’s big to-do was whether or not to keep the “Devil” in the team’s name. In June, expect me to start the Official We Gotta Get Carl Crawford Outta There Club.

American League Central

1. Detroit Tigers. Kenny Rogers may be missing the first half of the season, but Mike Maroth’s return to health should help offset that loss. It’s all the same, as Kenny’s about at that point where his honeymoon with a new team is over and he returns to “The Crazy.” Sheff will help, since his honeymoon’s just starting, and otherwise, the same cast of semi-stars and role players will be back to defend in baseball’s beastliest division. Sean Casey for $4 million is officially the Preseason Deal of the Year.

2. Chicago White Sox. On the surface, I love the offense in Chicago, but everybody seems to be getting older, not better. Jermaine Dye won’t reach his 2006 numbers again, and Jim Thome’s due for another massive physical breakdown. Their rotation isn’t nearly as feared after they parted with Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy (The Next Big Thing), but Mark Buerhle can’t be that bad again.

3. Minnesota Twins. Somehow, the Twins will make me eat this. While I’m sold on Johan Santana being… well, Johan Santana again, and Joe Mauer’s for real, I don’t know if Justin Morneau can re-up on his MVP season, or if Francisco Liriano is as good as advertised after his major arm surgery. Again, this will be the paragraph that eventually invalidates the entire article, so never mind.

4. Cleveland Indians. Another tough year to love the Tribe, because they’d have a real shot at winning any other division besides the AL East. At least it’s a lot of fun to watch Travis Hafner hit.

5. Kansas City Royals. Another year in the cellar, but it won’t be as embarrassing as last year, though, and Ryan Shealy brings hope. This city and its fans deserve better, but at least things are on an upswing for a change.

American League West

1. Oakland Athletics. This is the one pick I’m allowed to make without any justification at all. The A’s have done their annual rebuilding and will be eight games out at the All-Star Break, then go undefeated in August and win walking away. I don’t know how. They just will. That’s all that’s important.

2. Anaheim Angels. Notice that doesn’t say “Los Angeles Angels of the Western Hemisphere.” Anyway, Vlad Guererro could be the most entertaining player to watch of my lifetime, since he might swing at a pickoff throw and drill it into the gap in right-center field. I like a lot about the Angels and pudgy throwback catcher Mike Napoli, but I don’t care much for their rotation after Jered Weaver… and he’s bound to come down a little, too. Their bullpen’s as good as it comes, though.

3. Texas Rangers. Make it a point to watch Michael Young and the best infield in baseball at least once this season, before they break it up. The pitching actually seems to be improving this year, instead of Texas management just telling us that (ex-Ranger) Chan Ho Park “will turn it around.”

4. Seattle Mariners. Two interesting things about the ‘07 Mariners: they’re gonna trade Ichiro before the deadline, and they’ve got a closer named Putz. When he blows a save, you don’t even have to think of an insult… it’s sewn on his uniform! That’s a new high in fan friendliness!

Watch for the White Sox to be the Wild-Card winner, and for the Yankees to head to the Fall Classic. My National League predictions will be up sometime in the next 36 hours.

Fresh from the slow news day file, the Canadian Press reports that Chicago Bears fan Scott Wiese was denied his request to legally change his name to Peyton Manning after losing a bet when da’Bears lost da’Bowl.

“I had told the judge that I was not doing this because I wanted to change my name, but I was doing it because I was honoring a bet,” Wiese told the Decatur Herald Review.

What the hell is this world coming to? He didn’t make the agreement under duress (though, perhaps he had tossed a few beers back beforehand). The judged said that allowing the name change would cause confusion and infringe on the privacy of Peyton Manning (of the Colts). How, exactly? Who is going to confuse the two? Does this mean that no one can be named after a public figure from now on? What about that Michael Bolton guy from Office Space? Even he caved eventually.

What do you think? Should the judge have let the name change go through? I seem to remember someone getting their name changed to Trout Fishing In America some time ago. That seems a bit more out there than “Peyton Manning.”

Via Deadspin, Billy Packer admits what we already knew or strongly suspected.

So these videos have already made some of the rounds but I just had to post them as well. First off, the crazy finish of the NCAA Division II Men’s Basketball Championship.

That’s some Reggie Miller vs. the Knicks shit right there.

And then The Hated Pistons(tm) with a crazy, luckiest-shot-ever by ol’ Sheed from over half court to tie a game (that they eventually won)

The sad thing about my hatred for the Pistons is that anymore I hate the Pacers too (not for the same reasons, obviously. ANd I am still a ‘fan’… mostly… sorta). The NBA. It’s FAAAAAAAAANtastic.

Today marks the birthday of former MLB player Creighton Gubanich (born 1972 in Belleville, New Jersey), who made The Show for three months and 18 games with the 1999 Boston Red Sox. A barrel of a man at 6′3″ and 200 pounds, he hit .277 in 47 at-bats, and was the fourth player in major league history to hit a grand slam for his first major league plate hit. (It was also his only major league home run, and came off of Jimmy Haynes of the Oakland Athletics on May 3, 1999.) Gubanich appeared in 14 games as a catcher, two as a designated hitter, and one as a third baseman.

Gubanich, shown here on his 2000 Topps card, catches to the mournful delight of whiny beaneaters. (image courtesy of All Star Baseball Academy)

Gubanich started the next season as an Indianapolis Indian after failing to make the Milwaukee Brewers as a non-roster invitee. Undaunted, he put together a great season for the Tribe in 2000, batting .284 with 34 doubles, 16 home runs and 71 RBI in 380 at-bats. He slammed seven home runs in June, earning honors as the Brewers’ Organizational Player of the Month. In the 2000 Triple-A World Series, Gubanich slammed a walk-off home run in Game 2 that put the PCL-champion Memphis Redbirds down two games to none to the Indians, who eventually won that series 3-1. For a couple of days, Gubanich and his home run were all over ESPN. I actually watched that game on ESPN2, and it was about as thrilling as a game can get. Good times.

(As a sad aside, that was also the last Triple-A World Series to date. The event had been held in Las Vegas during its brief history, and the best and brightest of AAA baseball weren’t enough to draw people out of air-conditioned casinos to watch day games in 100-degree heat.)

Gubanich retired as a player after the 2003 season. He currently resides in Phoenixville, Pennsylvania, and teaches at several baseball camps and academies in that area.

Indianapolis has been caught up in post-Super Bowl euphoria for quite a while now. I figured it was a good time to remember the city’s other sports champions, as well.

Enough was enough for Tubby Smith in Lexington. Smith will be announced tomorrow as the new head coach for the University of Minnesota, ending his 10-year tenure at Kentucky. The only sad part of this is that the majority of Wildcat fans will applaud the move. Say what you will about Tubby, but he had to be tired of hearing his name whispered as the victim of a potential ousting after every season. Most ‘Cat faithful will be glad to get someone else in, some others will scream about how Smith “abandoned” the program, but the truth is that Tubby can walk away from Rupp arena held high. His teams were always well-coached and sometimes achieved more than the talent they had would have dictated under an ordinary coach. In terms of X’s and O’s, he’s easily one of the best basketball coaches on the planet.

“HAW-haw! Fire THIS, you rat bastards! Now, I shall cleanse myself in the waters of Lake Minnetonka.” (image courtesy of siouxcityjournal.com)

Oh, and he won a national title in 1998. God forbid anyone remembers that. Much happiness to you in Gopherland, Tubby, you’ve earned it. A quick word of advice, though… get someone on that bench of yours to recruit. Of course, being in a situation where kids aren’t worried about their coach getting fired for a “mere” 22-win season will probably help things in that regard.

While we’re on the subject of coaches that the locals will be happy to see go, Steve Alford has reportedly told his Iowa players that he’ll be taking the head coaching job at New Mexico. Alford led his Hawkeyes to only three NCAA Tournaments in his eight seasons and won only one tournament game in those appearances. Notably, his third-seeded team lost to fourteenth-seeded Northwestern State in last year’s tourney. My bracket still stings from that one. “Sleeper Elite Eight team” my butt. The important thing is, I’m not bitter. Eight seasons of mediocrity from a team that the locals live and die with is enough to wear out just about anybody’s welcome, so Alford (probably correctly) decided that this was a good time to start fresh and move on. He’s been a guy who gets a lot out of hard-working, less-talented clubs, so New Mexico should be better for his hiring there.

“Don’t you worry, Bloomington rednecks, I’ll always be in your hearts!” (image courtesy of illinireport.com)

Finally, Duke sophomore forward and local boy Josh McRoberts declared himself eligible for the NBA Draft today, capping off a surprisingly big day in non-game NCAA action. I’ll go easy on the kid, because my dad thinks he’s a good guy (he works at Carmel High School, McRoberts’ alma mater). Honestly, McRoberts could stand one more year of seasoning, this time as Duke’s #1 offensive option, but he’ll do okay in the pros. Scoring 18 per game next year won’t help his standing too much. He’ll be a rotation player and hang around the NBA for a long time because he rebounds, defends, passes, and has a great basketball IQ. Is he an All-Star? No. One or two more years at Duke won’t change that, so he might as well have his moderate payday as a low first-round pick now. To his credit, he’s better offensively than Joakim Noah. Then again, so is Flea from the Red Hot Chili Peppers.
All this means is Danny Ainge may have to trade down to appease the basketball gods (or just CJ), so McRoberts can attain his rightful place in history.

Readers from the beginning of CWAMB know my feelings about Bill Simmons. But he’s dead on in his column about Billy Packer.
For as long as I cam remember, it’s been Billy Packer calling the biggest tournament games, being condescending to anyone with an opinion different than his and basically being a humorous drag on the game. Simmons explains why it’s been “for as long as I can remember”

“Billy Packer has provided color for every Final Four game and every NCAA championship game since 1975.”

That’s right. For longer than I’ve been alive, Packer has been calling NCAA games. That’s a frightening thought in itself. But Simmons goes further and to me writes on of his best columns (he’s usually good when he stays away from any topics involving Boston).

“Here’s the problem: Packer loves basketball a little too much. He doesn’t grasp its entertainment value simply because he can’t see it.
…
Look, we spend way too much time complaining about the sports media. If you don’t like a certain writer, don’t read him. If you don’t like a certain radio show, don’t listen. If you don’t like a certain studio analyst, turn the channel. It’s that simple.

Packer’s case is different, though. Many people (including me) believe he’s a humorless know-it-all and a curmudgeon, and we’re exhausted by his schtick. But because he announces the most important college games every spring, he can’t be avoided.”

Indeed. Credit where credit is due. Simmons nailed this one.

…speaking of nailing it, there was this time me and my buddies Bish and House where in Vegas and House nailed a blackjack against a dealer they brought out to be The Closer. It was like that scene in [insert pop culture reference here]….

Update: Okay so I just haven’t had the time to dedicate to this. I’m going to put off this project until NFL Pre-Season this year. It’s more fitting then anyway.

(more…)

Inspired by this blog’s ‘Ultimate NFL Championship’ (which has some dubious selections and omissions as well as what seems to be just intriguing matchups and SB rematches instead of seeding), I decided to geek out and do a real playoff of all Super Bowl and NFL Championship winners from the 1941 through 2006 seasons using WhatIfSports.

Seeding was based first on regular season winning percentage then average point differential (including playoffs). Fianlly if even that tied, total points scored (including playoffs) was the tiebreaker. The one seeds are:

• 1972 Miami Dolphins
• 1985 Chicago Bears
• 1984 San Francisco 49ers
• 1962 Green Bay Packers

The full bracket can be accessed here in fancy-schmancy Google Docs format. Since there are 66 teams in the playoffs, there are two play-in games to determine the final two spots in the field of 64. The first two rounds will be played at the higher seeded team. After that games will take place at neutral locations. Weather is whatever the current weather is at the time I simulate the game.

Today’s games will be the play-in games.

Play-In Game #1: for the #63 spot (#16 seed vs. ‘85 Chicago Dolphins)
‘57 Detroit Lions vs. the ‘51 LA Rams
‘57 Lions: 22
‘51 Rams: 14
Player of the Game: ‘57 Lions John Henry Johnson, 202 yds rushing, 1 TD

Play-In Game #2: for the #64 spot (#16 seed vs. ‘72 Miami Dolphins)
‘88 San Francisco 49ers vs. ‘67 Green Bay Packers
‘88 49ers: 14
‘67 Packers: 7
Player of the Game: ‘88 49ers Jeff Fuller, 3 tackles, 2 INT

Later tonight: The San Diego Region’s first round gets under way.
Tomorrow 3/22: First round of the Phoenix Region
Friday 3/23: First round of the Atlanta Region
Saturday 3/24: First round of the Jacksonville Region
Monday 3/26: Second round of San Diego and Phoenix
Tuesday 3/27: Second round of Atlanta and Jacksonville
Wednesday 3/28: Sweet Sixteen games in San Fran, LA, Houston and Dallas
Thursday 3/29: Sweet Sixteen games in Minneapolis, Detroit, Indianapolis and Charlotte
Saturday 3/31: Quaterfinals in San Diego, Phoenix, Atlanta and Jacksonville
Saturday: Final Four. San Diego winner vs. Phoenix winner, Atlanta winner vs. Jacksonville winner
Monday 4/2: All Time NFL Super Bowl Championship at Miami
This is just my attempt at a schedule. My guess is it will slip but I will try to have the final “championship post” up on the day of the NCAA championships.

Hopefully this is interesting in some way. It gives me a goal to post nearly every day, and it will be fun to see how the games shake out in WhatIfSports.

I’ve largely given up on both the NBA and the Indiana Pacers. As a life-long Pacers and Eastern Conference fan, it’s just brutal to watch. And the Pacers… well… they’re just a joke. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.

To give you an idea of just how bad the Eastern Conference is, the Indiana Pacers are still in the playoffs after recently suffering an 11 game losing streak. Their record stands at 30-35 and the 8th seed. 7th seed New Jersey is at 31-36. The lowly Atlanta Hawks are only 4 or 5 games out of the playoffs.
Ah the NBA… it’s FAAAAAAAAANtastic.