My biggest worry about the Big Game is that this is the first time in the playoffs the Colts will have to face a WR that’s a real burner who can stretch the field. This will make it so they can’t just drop Bob Sanders down in run support the whole time. With Harper (their best cover corner) possibly not able to go if his ankle sprain is a high sprain, this could double that problem.

But Manning and the rest of the Offense also bailed out the Defense. The D gave up two big plays on 4th down and looked rattled after both of them. They put the Colts in an early 14-3 hole, and that would be very dangerous territory for a team with a weaker QB. I also don’t think the importance of those long, clock-grinding drives to end the first half and start the second half can be overstated. The Colts’ D was well-rested by the time the Patriots took the field in the second half, and it showed.

If the Colts hold the Bears’ running game in check, I think they’ll win. The Bears’ Defense is banged up, and the Chicago weather helped to hide some of their glaring deficiencies against the passing game.

But the Colts will also need a better performance from Manning than we saw in the first 10 quarters of the playoffs. I have a hunch that Good Rex is going to show up on February 4th. He’s very capable of making a couple of big plays, putting points on the scoreboard, and then putting the ground game in position to grind out the clock. If Manning throws 2 or 3 bonehead picks, I’m not sure the Defense can bail him out this time.